News around the World

Nancy Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan tonight

The US congressional delegation’s itinerary includes stops in South Korea and Japan, but no official mention has been made of a visit to Taiwan. However, the Taiwanese official said that Nancy Pelosi is expected to stay in Taiwan overnight. It is unclear when exactly Pelosi will land in Taipei.

China warned against the ‚Äúegregious political impact‚ÄĚ of Pelosi‚Äôs planned visit to the self-governing island that China claims as a part of its territory and reiterated that its military ‚Äúwon‚Äôt sit by idly‚ÄĚ if Beijing feels its ‚Äúsovereignty and territorial integrity‚ÄĚ is being threatened.

Image resource:https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220731032604-02-china-pelosi-asia-trip-file-restricted-exlarge-169.jpg

News around the World

China could have an unprecedented response to Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit

Last week, US House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi would like to have a Taiwan visit to show support for Taiwan. China immediately gives a warning against a potential high-stakes trip and vowed to take ‚Äúresolute and forceful measures‚ÄĚ of the trip goes ahead.

However, Chinese government has not specified in public what ‚Äúforceful measures‚ÄĚ it is planning to take. Some Chinese experts say Beijing‚Äôs reaction could involve a military component and the situation between China and the US will be very tense.

Pelosi’s potential trip wouldn’t be the first time a sitting US House speaker has visited Taiwan. In 1997, Newt Gingrich met Taiwan first democratically elected President Lee Teng-hui. At that time, China’s response was limited to rhetoric. Twenty-five years on, it is a completely different regime in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. China is stronger, more powerful, and confident, and its leader XI, Jinping has made it clear that Beijing will no longer tolerate any perceived slights or challenge to its interests. China is in a position to be more assertive, to impose costs and consequences to countries that don’t take China’s interest into consideration in their policy or actions.

Last Wednesday, US president Joe Biden told reporters the US military thinks a Taiwan visit by Pelosi is ‚Äúnot a good idea right now.‚ÄĚ 

On this Monday, Gingrich wrote on the social media about his comment on the potential visit and raise out the concern about political timidity.

The potential Taiwan visit by Pelosi would come at a sensitive time for China. The PLA is celebrating its founding anniversary on August 1, while Xi, the country’s most powerful leader in decades, is preparing to seek a third term at the ruling Communist Party this fall.

But with Pelosi‚Äôs potential visit is now playing out in public, any decision to delay or cancel, risks being seen as a concession. 

 

Image sources:https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220720000950-01-china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-exlarge-169.jpg

 

Investment

The inflation is making the West difficult to go further on Russian oil

European Union and the United States have barred the import of Russian oil to cut off the revenue source for Kremlin and force Vladimir Putin to reconsider the war in Ukraine. However, it seems like this measure hasn’t worked.

When EU and the US looked at the data, they found that Russia is making just as much money from oil export as it was before the invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, global inflation is surging, and it generates Politian pressure on leaders like US president Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

In the recent G7 meeting, these leaders tried very much to reach a consensus on that to do next. However, on oil, only few options are available. several measures were being discussed. For examples, price caps on Russian oil imports and centralized purchasing, insurance bans on ships. Unfortunately, these tools have downsides, and they could push the oil price and inflation rate even higher. These prospective measures may come with significant costs directly to consumers in the US and Europe.

Nevertheless, there is an uptick in exports to Asia. China is currently taking advantages of huge price discounts. Russia is selling barrels of its Urals crude for about USD 35 cheaper than the Brent global benchmark. The Kremlin is still getting a pretty good price for their oil export. The West need to go further to get Russian oil off the market quickly, since any delay will give market participants time to come up with creative ways to skirt the rules.

To make it harder for China, India, and other countries to keep importing Russian oil, EU intends to phase in a ban on insuring ships. Such a move may push China and India to find replacement barrels, the price of oil could easily go rocket high.

Therefore, Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that using price caps to push down the price of Russian oil and depress Putin’s revenues while allowing more oil supply to reach the global market.

Image source: https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220624114155-india-crude-oil-freight-file-restricted-exlarge-169.jpg

Investment

Gold Price Down USD 50 on the Day Indicating Markets in Chaos.

The markets in chaos: precious metals prices down, Bitcoin price hits lowest level since December 2020 and stocks plunges. Analysts warn of panic selling as investors are pre-reacting to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on this Wednesday following a high inflation rate of the U.S.

The inflation is now expecting at annual pace of 8.6%. economists believe the Fed will need to get more aggressive to tame the inflation. The U.S. dollar reacted positively to the expected rate hike and goes stronger. In response to rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar, Gold saw a very sharp sell off as it plunged around USD 50 per oz on the day.

The precious metals are struggling as investors are still digesting inflation data and the looming economy downturn in China caused by the latest outbreak in Beijing and Shanghai. The latest lockdowns could lead to a much more extended period of supply chain issues and disruption.

Even though the market expects that the Fed will have an aggressive rate hike, but it is still not enough to get the inflation under control.

in the meantime, gold remains at risk of a more significant selloff. The support at USD 1,800 per ounce might not hold and we will see a retreat towards USD 1,750 per ounce. 

Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/gold-and-silver-round-coins-and-bullions-8442328/

Investment

The global economy is on the edge of a precipice

The global economy is on the edge of a precipice, and it may be the biggest crisis since the Second World War.

The invasion of Ukraine has compounded the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It brings the cost of the food and fuel to skyrocket which weighing on the economic recovery and fanning inflation.

Rising interest rates are putting more pressure on countries, companies, and households. Climate changes, market turbulence and ongoing supply chain constraints also make the situation become more worse.

To lower economic stress, the IMP is calling for government officials and business leaders meeting in Davos to discuss reducing trade barriers.

However, earlier this month, Indian government decided to ban the export of wheat and it triggered the price of grain soaring. Some countries are heading in the opposite direction of IMF and implementing restrictions on trade in food and agriculture products that could probably exacerbate the shortages and push the prices even higher.

Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/american-and-chinese-flags-and-usa-dollars-4386371/

Investment

Decoupling, one of the biggest risk to the global economy

Global Markets may still underestimate the impact of China‚Äôs strict zero-Covid policy. Until now, nearly 400 million people across the mainland China are under full or partial lockdown. 

Investors probably do not aware of this zero-Covid policy as much more attention remains focused on the Russian-Ukraine war and the US Federal Reserve rate hikes.

However, more and more analysts are ringing warning bells as Shanghai, a city of 25 million and one of China’s premiere manufacturing is under the indefinite lockdown. The quarantines left the largest port in the world understaffed. Food supplies stuck in shipping containers, incoming cargo is now stuck at Shanghai marine terminals and cargo airlines were cancelled all flight in and out of the city. Sony, Apple supplier plants, Quanta Factory and Tesla factory in and around Shanghai, are idle.

The impact on China is major and the ripple effect on the global economy is also significant.

The ongoing disruption to manufacturing and shipping in China may help accelerate the US president Joe Biden to reduce US dependence on products and supply chains from China. Some US economic leaders believe that decoupling is underway. However, it is extremely difficult. Globalization is not something that is easy to be reversed because it would be incredibly costly. 

Investment

Precious metals hit hard as Fed Chair Powell Stays


Gold and silver futures were sharply down the U.S. trading session Monday while President Joe Biden confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for his second term. The precious metals prices were under a huge pressure and selling pressure accelerated overnight. 

December gold was last down nearly USD 41.10 at USD 1,810.4 and December Comex Silver was last down USD 0.421 at USD 24.36 per ounce.

Someone argued that another term for Powell was just an excuse for bullions future traders taking profits after recent good price gains. Some analysts believe bullion markets are likely to continue to be supported by the inflation trade and to be sought out as a hedge against rising and even problematic price inflation.